NAADIनाड़ी
MSME-2403T3 GST · UPI · AA · EPFO

Rathod Auto Components

Auto Components Mfg · Manufacturing · Pune, MH · 14 yrs · 11 on payroll

“Tier-2 OEM supplier sliding for five months: shrinking orders, stretching receivables, two EMI bounces. The early-warning case.”

Proprietor
Vikram Rathod
Monthly turnover (6-mo avg)
₹30,07,991
beats 6% of Manufacturing peers9th percentile, all MSMEs
300400500600700800900
300± 15
EPD 12m · 62.9%
Munshi recommends
Decline
No exposure recommended today — the what-if panel below hands the borrower a concrete path back.
⚖ Liquidity floor: buffer < 15 days — limit reduced 20%

The NAADI six — dimension radar

L · Liquidity-23.8
6 /100

Can the business absorb a shock this month?

S · Stability-23.9
3 /100

How steady is the cash engine?

G · Growth-15.6
13 /100

Which direction is the business moving?

R · Repayment
22 /100

Does it honour its obligations?

C · Compliance-113.6
14 /100

Is the regulatory house in order?

K · Concentration-7.9
31 /100

How fragile is the revenue base?

Score trajectory — 12-month rolling rescore

▼ 15 pts over 12 moEWS breached

Each point is the score NAADI would have produced with only the data visible that month — deterioration surfaces quarters before a default.

GST turnover · 24 mo

₹30 L

UPI inflow · 24 mo

₹1.0 L

Account balance · 24 mo

₹4,149

Score, assembled — the waterfall

base 627 + six dimensions = 442
Peer base
627
Compliance
-114
Stability
-24
Liquidity
-24
Growth
-16
Concentration
-8
NAADI score
442

Reason codes — why this score

TreeSHAP · score points
RC-C05
Compliance — EPFO deposit regularity of 49%; ITC mismatch rate of 9.3%
-113.6
RC-S02
Stability — seasonal swing of 111% around mean revenue; UPI inflow volatility of 33%
-23.9
RC-L01
Liquidity — cash buffer of 0 days of outflow; worst-decile balance at 0% of monthly outflow
-23.8
RC-G03
Growth — payroll wage growth of -2.1%; new-customer acquisition at 6.1%/month
-15.6
RC-K06
Concentration — refund/reversal rate of 1.6%; top-3 payers at 59% of revenue
-7.9

Officer review — the human decides

demo-local audit

Munshi recommends Decline with improvement path. Every NAADI decision terminates at a human gate.

Red flags on the wire

  • ▲ 2 EMI/NACH bounce(s) in the last 12 months
  • ▲ 11 end-of-day negative balance days

Stress lab

rescored, not guessed
Revenue shock −20% for two quarters424 E-18
Anchor payer delays receipts by 60 days421 E-21

What-if — the path to a better score

Counterfactuals over actionable levers only. Shown to the borrower — a decline is never a dead end.

File GSTR-3B on time for the next 3 months+40 pts → 482
Hold a 30-day cash buffer in the current account+22 pts → 464
Route all EMIs through the surplus account (zero bounces for 6 months)+3 pts → 445

Early-warning triggers armed

  • ● 3-month turnover drawdown > 25% vs trailing average
  • ● Two consecutive delayed GSTR-3B filings
  • ● End-of-day negative balance on > 5 days in any month

Sensitivity lab — drag a lever, the brain answers

1-D partial dependence · precomputed through the trained model · one lever at a time
GSTR-3B filing delay2.1 days
EMI/NACH bounces (12m)2 count
Top-payer share46%
Cash buffer0.1 days
current score
442
touch a lever to project

Underwriting memo — drafted by Munshi

LLM writes prose · engine writes numbers

Underwriting Memo — Rathod Auto Components

Manufacturing · Pune, MH · 14 yrs vintage · Data tier T3 · Proprietor: Vikram Rathod

NAADI Score: 442 ± 15 (Grade E) · PD(12m) 62.9% · Decline with improvement path

Recommendation: Decline with improvement path

Why (evidence-linked)

  • -113.6 pts · Compliance — EPFO deposit regularity of 49%; ITC mismatch rate of 9.3% [RC-C05]
  • -23.9 pts · Stability — seasonal swing of 111% around mean revenue; UPI inflow volatility of 33% [RC-S02]
  • -23.8 pts · Liquidity — cash buffer of 0 days of outflow; worst-decile balance at 0% of monthly outflow [RC-L01]

Policy guards applied

  • Liquidity floor: buffer < 15 days — limit reduced 20%

Covenants

  • Maintain minimum average balance of 15 days' outflow
  • File GSTR-3B on or before due date throughout the loan tenor
  • Zero EMI/NACH bounces; auto-review on first bounce
  • Route >= 60% of business receipts through the IDBI current account

Early-warning triggers

  • 3-month turnover drawdown > 25% vs trailing average
  • Two consecutive delayed GSTR-3B filings
  • End-of-day negative balance on > 5 days in any month

Prepared by Munshi. Every figure traces to a consented data rail; final authority rests with the sanctioning officer.